Why Hayes’ Shrinking Households Could Shape the Future of its Property Market

Smaller household sizes are one of the reasons the Hayes (and the UK) property market and house prices will continue to hold up well in the medium to long term. British households for the last 100 years have been getting smaller, and this trend will drive demand for property and help give stability and growth to house prices.

Historically, the numbers are quite telling.

Looking at the household stats going back a century, the average number of people in a British home in 1921 was 4.3, fifty years later (1971) it had dropped to 3.2 people per household. At the last Census (2021), this had dropped to today’s figure of 2.36 people per household.

Doesn’t sound a lot, but if the population remained at the same level for the next 50 years and we had the same percentage drop in household size, the UK would need to build an additional 11.5 million properties (or 230,697 per year) just to keep up with the smaller households. When you consider the country is only building 210,230 properties a year and that must satisfy not only the changing household numbers, but also people living longer and the c. 180,000 per year net migration - we simply aren’t building enough homes.

The table shows the average household size in the United Kingdom in 2023, by region:

• United Kingdom: 2.36
• London: 2.57
• Northern Ireland: 2.57
• South East: 2.43
• East Midlands: 2.41
• West Midlands: 2.38
• East: 2.37
• South West: 2.36
• Yorkshire and the Humber: 2.31
• Wales: 2.27
• North West: 2.27
• North East: 2.17
• Scotland: 2.15

And closer to home,

The average household size in Hillingdon is 2.8 people

Next, let us drill down even deeper into the statistics and see if the tenure changes anything.

Most homeowners who own their property outright - an impressive 82% - live in households of just one or two people. This trend is largely explained by older residents, often retirees, whose children have moved out, or elderly individuals living alone.

Interestingly, those living alone are more likely to occupy council housing, with 41% of single-occupant households falling into this category. On the other hand, the largest households - those with four or more people - are typically homeowners with a mortgage. This makes sense, as larger families often require financial support to purchase a home.

What truly caught my attention, however, was the even distribution of private rented households across all household sizes. Unlike other housing sectors, the private rental market closely mirrors the national average for household sizes, despite only accounting for about one-sixth of the population. It’s a fascinating balance in an otherwise segmented housing landscape.

Therefore, I will analyse the local stats:

There are 85,961 private renters in Hillingdon that occupy 28,410 private rented homes, meaning there are an average of 3.03 renters per property.

But it gets even more interesting when we dig even deeper on just private rental properties in Hillingdon, as it is the rental market in Hayes that really fascinates me. When I analysed those Hillingdon private rental household composition figures:

• 18.8% of private rental properties in South Hillingdon are 1 person households
• 25.0% of private rental properties in South Hillingdon are 2 person households
• 21.0% of private rental properties in South Hillingdon are 3 person households
• 35.1% of private rental properties in South Hillingdon are 4 or more person households

What This Means for Hayes’ Property Market

Hayes’ shrinking household sizes paints an optimistic picture for the property market’s long-term stability and growth. Smaller households mean an increasing demand for more homes overall, even if the population remains steady. For homeowners, this demographic trend supports the likelihood of long-term value growth for their properties. With fewer people per household, the demand for homes is set to continue rising, providing peace of mind that property values will hold firm in the medium to long term.

For potential buyers, this trend also underscores the resilience of the property market. Smaller households are not a temporary phenomenon - they reflect a century-long shift that’s likely to persist. Whether you’re purchasing a home to live in or as a long-term investment, the data suggests Hayes’ property market offers stability and room for growth, especially given its alignment with national trends.

However, it’s within the private rented sector where these demographic shifts create the most opportunity. Private rental properties are uniquely positioned to benefit from the growing number of smaller households. In Hillingdon, just over two-fifths of private rental properties house just one or two people, making smaller properties an increasingly attractive option for landlords. The data demonstrates that smaller households dominate the rental market, and this trend will only intensify over time.

For Hayes landlords, this means one thing: focusing on smaller Hayes properties could provide a competitive buy-to-let edge. Not only is there a rising demand for one and two-bedroom homes, but these properties tend to offer better rental yields compared to larger family homes. With lower purchase prices relative to their rental income, smaller properties are a smart choice for investors looking to maximise yields and returns.

Additionally, the flexibility of smaller properties makes them an enduring asset in a landlord’s portfolio. From young professionals seeking their first rental home to older individuals downsizing, the demand for compact, affordable housing is broad and stable. As Hayes’ population continues to evolve, smaller properties will remain the cornerstone of the rental market, offering consistent occupancy rates and strong returns.

For landlords in Hayes, the message is clear: smaller households (including smaller bungalows) are the future, and smaller properties are the key to unlocking long-term success in the private rented sector.

If you are a landlord - whether you manage your properties yourself or work with another agent - and you'd like to discuss whether your portfolio aligns with the current trends in Hayes’ rental market, feel free to give me a call. I would be happy to share my insights without any obligation or cost.